Real estate market will cool in 2017?

06/12/2016   Viewed: 619
In the report "Vietnam Economic Forecast 2017" recently, Dr Dinh The Hien said: "It is likely that the real estate market will cool in 2017, even enters a difficult period like the year 2013 ".
The real estate market (real estate) in 2017 remains the channel of choice individual investors, but will reduce lot sizes due to the sharp decline of speculation, as well as funds from commercial banks shrunk. Property will be strong differentiation, only some local projects have financial advantages, new products can be conveniently consumed.

According to the data collected in the report, Dr Dinh The Hien said that Vietnam real estate market in the years 2014 - 2016 with a much higher growth rate than the economy, with the number of projects and products huge, surpassing the salability of customers; simultaneously, creating oversupply and lack of demand from economic development.
 
thị trường địa ốc 2017 1


It is worth noting that the market is strong involvement of speculators using huge bank loans and the need for exit row upon receipt apartment. CBRE's report shows that more than 60% of buyers are speculators.

In 2012, Statistics 26 listed companies in the real estate sector, there is provided a cash inventory is 36,700 billion; May 6/2016, 16 listed companies have inventories amounted to 82 823 billion, debts of up to 160 956 billion.

So in 2017, when speculators without the need to use and the lease of difficulties, many people will receive the apartment and handing out of debt needs to make the supply and demand is increasing failure vinegar.

Credit capital has always been considered a decisive role for the development of the property market with an estimated capital structure occupies 70-80% of the value. In 2017, this fund will be difficult and more narrow than in 2015-2016 due to difficulties in funding medium - long term while commercial banks virtually no geographical balance of short-term capital regulation of state banks from 1/2017 apply.

In addition, commercial banks are facing pressure on bad debts are estimated at $ 100,000 billion in bad loans. In 2 years from 2015 to 2016, the increase rate of real estate loans was strong, but long-term funding sources did not increase significantly. With an official warning about limited real estate credit, the State Bank of real estate credit in 2017 will certainly not be able to grow as 2016.

Dr Dinh The Hien reviews, cheap apartment segment than 1 billion social housing and is considered the cure-all for the real estate market in 2017 because of strong demand. But these objects almost 70% need to borrow amounts from home equity loans of government incentives. After 30.000 billion aid package ended in May 6/2016, the next stage will be hard to support a similar package. The reason is that the budget is very stressful, difficult to find a source of government credit policy alternative social housing, while many other areas of social spending needed more.

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